Computer Model Showing 2012 Polls with 2000, 2004 and 2008 Voter Turnout. Who Would Have Won?

A lot of the pundits are looking at the polls and the race in general and comparing it to past presidential races.

I created a computer program to tell us what the results would have been if the polling ratios in this year’s polls were applied to historic models of past presidential elections.

The results are interesting.

If we have voters turn out like they did in 2008, most models show Obama would win. A few would give the nod to Romney.

Most of the difference is in the Independent vote. Some years there were more Independents and some less. And they are mostly favoring Romney this year, where in 2008 they were voting in Obama’s favor.

What this computer model does is take the percentages of Republicans, Democrats and Independents as found by each poll and applies that ratio to the actual turnout for each election year.

And just for fun we have added the 2012 polling model of +2 Republican and a Neutral model there Republicans, Democrats and Independents are all 33% of the projected turnout.

These polls also identify a skew, the actual poll results as well as a grade. Of course the grades are subjective, but they are mostly grading the poll’s transparency and how detailed the data is which they release with the poll. The grade also considers the ratios of gender and race as far as the grade itself, but the year models are independent of any data outside of the party affiliation breakdown ratios.

So now you can see how this race may have compared to previous races.

Poll	Date	Grade	Skew
CNN 11-2	11/2 - 11/4	54 (F)	Dems + 11	O -49%
Pew 10-31	10/31 - 11/1	68 (D)	Dems + 6	O -50%
Politico 10-29	10/29 - 11/1	88 (B)	Dems + 5	O -48%
NBC - WSJ 11-1	11/1 - 11/3	70 (C)	Dems + 5	O -48%
ABC - WaPo 10-31	10/31 - 11/3	77 (C)	Dems + 4	O -49%
Fox News 10-28	10/28 - 10/30	57 (F)	Dems + 5	O -46%
CNS-NYT - 10-25	10/25 - 10/28	70 (C)	Dems + 5	O -48%
Pew Research 10-24	10/24 - 10/28	84 (B)	Repubs +1	O -47%
National Journal - 10-25	10/25 - 10/28	70 (C)	Repubs +8	O -50%
Rasmussen 10-28	10/28 - 10/30	68 (D)	Dems + 4	O -47%
ABC - WaPo 10-26	10/26 - 10/29	74 (C)	Dems + 7	O -48%
CBS-NYT 10-25	10/25 - 10/28	70 (C)	Dems + 5	O -48%
NPR 10-23	10/23 - 10/25	85 (B)	Dems + 6	O -47%
Rasmussen 10-27	10/27 - 10/29	68 (D)	Dems + 4	O -47%
ABC-WaPo 10-26	10/26 - 10/29	74 (C)	Dems + 7	O -48%
Pew 10-24	10/24 - 10/28	75 (C)	Repubs +1	O -47%
IBD-TIPP 10-22	10/22 - 10/27	64 (D)	Dems + 7	O -45%
Politico 10-22	10/22 - 10/25	88 (B)	Dems + 4	O -49%
AP-GfK 10-19	10/19 - 10/23	54 (F)	Dems + 7	O -45%
Monmouth 10-18	10/18 - 10/21	86 (B)	Dems + 4	O -45%
NBC-WSJ 10-17	10/17 - 10/20	68 (D)	Dems + 6	O -47%
CBS 10-17	10/17 - 10/20	51 (F)	Dems + 5	O -48%
Politico 10-15	10/15 - 10/18	90 (A)	Dems + 7	O -47%
Hartford 10-11	10/11 - 10/16	63 (D)	Dems + 8	O -48%
ABC News 10-10	10/10 - 10/13	60 (D)	Dems + 9	O -49%
Politico 10-7	10/7 - 10/11	88 (B)	Dems + 4	O -49%
Monmouth 10-8	10/8 - 10/10	90 (A)	Dems + 3	O -46%
Fox 10-7	10/7 - 10/9	51 (F)	Dems + 1	O -45%
Pew 10-4	10/4 - 10/7	74 (C)	Repubs +3	O -45%

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Results

Neutral

2000

2004

2008

2012

R-49% TIEO- 43.7% R- 54.4% Romney (R) +10.7O- 46.8% R- 52.1% Romney (R) +5.3O- 44.7%% R- 53.7% Romney (R) +9O- 48.3% R- 49.8% Romney (R) +1.5O- 43.7% R- 54.4% Romney (R) +10.7 R-47% Obama + 3O- 47% R- 46% Obama (D) + 1O- 48.6% R- 47.2% Obama (D) + 1.4O- 46.6%% R- 49.1% Romney (R) +2.5O- 50.4% R- 44.6% Obama (D) + 5.8O- 46.7% R- 46.8% Romney (R) +0.1 R-48% TIEO- 47% R- 48% Romney (R) +1O- 48.6% R- 48% Obama (D) + .6O- 46.6%% R- 49.9% Romney (R) +3.3O- 50.4% R- 45.5% Obama (D) + 4.9O- 46.8% R- 48.7% Romney (R) +1.9 R-47% Obama + 1O- 45.4% R- 49.4% Romney (R) +4O- 47.5% R- 49.4% Romney (R) +1.9O- 45.6%% R- 51.3% Romney (R) +5.7O- 49.2% R- 46.9% Obama (D) + 2.3O- 45.2% R- 49.8% Romney (R) +4.6 R-48% Obama + 1O- 46.4% R- 51.7% Romney (R) +5.3O- 48.6% R- 51.3% Romney (R) +2.7O- 46.6%% R- 53.1% Romney (R) +6.5O- 50.4% R- 49% Obama (D) + 1.4O- 46% R- 51.9% Romney (R) +5.9 R-46% TIEO- 43.4% R- 48.7% Romney (R) +5.3O- 47.3% R- 48.6% Romney (R) +1.3O- 45.2%% R- 50.4% Romney (R) +5.2O- 48.9% R- 46% Obama (D) + 2.9O- 43.2% R- 49.3% Romney (R) +6.1 R-47% Obama + 1O- 45.8% R- 48.8% Romney (R) +3O- 47.2% R- 49.9% Romney (R) +2.7O- 45.3%% R- 51.7% Romney (R) +6.4O- 49% R- 47.4% Obama (D) + 1.6O- 46% R- 49.4% Romney (R) +3.4 R-47% TIEO- 47.7% R- 47.4% Obama (D) + .3O- 48.1% R- 48.6% Romney (R) +0.5O- 46.1%% R- 50.4% Romney (R) +4.3O- 49.8% R- 46% Obama (D) + 3.8O- 47.6% R- 47.8% Romney (R) +0.2 R-45% Obama + 5O- 46.6% R- 51.6% Romney (R) +5O- 48.9% R- 51.1% Romney (R) +2.2O- 46.8%% R- 52.7% Romney (R) +5.9O- 50.6% R- 48.7% Obama (D) + 1.9O- 46.4% R- 51.9% Romney (R) +5.5 R-49% Romney +2O- 43.3% R- 50% Romney (R) +6.7O- 46.7% R- 49.4% Romney (R) +2.7O- 44.8%% R- 51.2% Romney (R) +6.4O- 48.3% R- 46.9% Obama (D) + 1.4O- 43.4% R- 50.5% Romney (R) +7.1 R-49% Romney +1O- 44% R- 52.3% Romney (R) +8.3O- 46.7% R- 52.9% Romney (R) +6.2O- 44.8%% R- 54.5% Romney (R) +9.7O- 48.4% R- 50.7% Romney (R) +2.3O- 44.1% R- 52.2% Romney (R) +8.1 R-47% Obama + 1O- 45.8% R- 48.8% Romney (R) +3O- 47.2% R- 49.9% Romney (R) +2.7O- 45.3%% R- 51.7% Romney (R) +6.4O- 49% R- 47.4% Obama (D) + 1.6O- 46% R- 49.4% Romney (R) +3.4 R-48% Romney +1O- 39.7% R- 46% Romney (R) +6.3O- 44.6% R- 47.5% Romney (R) +2.9O- 42.7%% R- 49.4% Romney (R) +6.7O- 46% R- 44.9% Obama (D) + 1.1O- 39.9% R- 46.7% Romney (R) +6.8 R-49% Romney +2O- 43.3% R- 50.3% Romney (R) +7O- 46.7% R- 49.4% Romney (R) +2.7O- 44.8%% R- 51.2% Romney (R) +6.4O- 48.3% R- 46.9% Obama (D) + 1.4O- 43.4% R- 50.8% Romney (R) +7.4 R-49% Romney +1O- 44.3% R- 52.3% Romney (R) +8O- 47% R- 52.9% Romney (R) +5.9O- 45%% R- 54.5% Romney (R) +9.5O- 48.6% R- 50.7% Romney (R) +2.1O- 44.4% R- 52.2% Romney (R) +7.8 R-47% TIEO- 46.7% R- 48.4% Romney (R) +1.7O- 47.6% R- 49.1% Romney (R) +1.5O- 45.6%% R- 51% Romney (R) +5.4O- 49.2% R- 46.6% Obama (D) + 2.6O- 46.7% R- 48.8% Romney (R) +2.1 R-44% Obama + 1O- 43.7% R- 46.1% Romney (R) +2.4O- 46.9% R- 48.6% Romney (R) +1.7O- 45.1%% R- 50.5% Romney (R) +5.4O- 48.5% R- 46% Obama (D) + 2.5O- 43.6% R- 46.4% Romney (R) +2.8 R-48% Obama + 1O- 46% R- 49% Romney (R) +3O- 47.8% R- 49.6% Romney (R) +1.8O- 45.8%% R- 51.5% Romney (R) +5.7O- 49.5% R- 47.2% Obama (D) + 2.3O- 45.9% R- 49.4% Romney (R) +3.5 R-47% Romney +2O- 42.9% R- 49.9% Romney (R) +7O- 45.1% R- 50.3% Romney (R) +5.2O- 43.1%% R- 52% Romney (R) +8.9O- 46.5% R- 47.7% Romney (R) +1.2O- 43.4% R- 50.3% Romney (R) +6.9 R-48% Romney +3O- 43.3% R- 49.4% Romney (R) +6.1O- 45.6% R- 50.2% Romney (R) +4.6O- 43.8%% R- 52.1% Romney (R) +8.3O- 47.2% R- 47.8% Romney (R) +0.6O- 43.6% R- 49.6% Romney (R) +6 R-47% TIEO- 49.8% R- 47.1% Obama (D) + 2.7O- 51.8% R- 47.2% Obama (D) + 4.6O- 49.8%% R- 49.1% Obama (D) + .7O- 53.8% R- 44.6% Obama (D) + 9.2O- 48.9% R- 47.9% Obama (D) + 1 R-46% Obama + 2O- 48.4% R- 45.7% Obama (D) + 2.7O- 49.1% R- 47.5% Obama (D) + 1.6O- 47.1%% R- 49.4% Romney (R) +2.3O- 50.9% R- 44.9% Obama (D) + 6O- 48.1% R- 46.3% Obama (D) + 1.8 R-49% Romney +2O- 45.7% R- 47.7% Romney (R) +2O- 48.6% R- 47.8% Obama (D) + .8O- 46.6%% R- 49.7% Romney (R) +3.1O- 50.4% R- 45.2% Obama (D) + 5.2O- 45.4% R- 48.4% Romney (R) +3 R-45% Obama + 3O- 45.4% R- 48% Romney (R) +2.6O- 49.2% R- 46.6% Obama (D) + 2.6O- 47.1%% R- 48.7% Romney (R) +1.6O- 50.9% R- 44% Obama (D) + 6.9O- 45% R- 49% Romney (R) +4 R-46% Obama + 3O- 45.3% R- 51.6% Romney (R) +6.3O- 48.1% R- 51.2% Romney (R) +3.1O- 46.2%% R- 53.1% Romney (R) +6.9O- 49.8% R- 49% Obama (D) + .8O- 45.2% R- 51.8% Romney (R) +6.6 R-48% Obama + 1O- 46.3% R- 51% Romney (R) +4.7O- 48.9% R- 51% Romney (R) +2.1O- 46.9%% R- 52.8% Romney (R) +5.9O- 50.6% R- 48.7% Obama (D) + 1.9O- 46% R- 51.2% Romney (R) +5.2 R-47% Romney +1O- 45% R- 48.3% Romney (R) +3.3O- 47.8% R- 48% Romney (R) +0.2O- 45.8%% R- 49.9% Romney (R) +4.1O- 49.4% R- 45.4% Obama (D) + 4O- 44.9% R- 49% Romney (R) +4.1 R-46% Romney +1O- 46.3% R- 42.3% Obama (D) + 4O- 48.6% R- 44.7% Obama (D) + 3.9O- 46.5%% R- 46.8% Romney (R) +0.3O- 50.4% R- 42% Obama (D) + 8.4O- 46.1% R- 43.5% Obama (D) + 2.6 R-49% Romney +4O- 47.7% R- 47.3% Obama (D) + .4O- 48.1% R- 48.6% Romney (R) +0.5O- 46%% R- 50.4% Romney (R) +4.4O- 49.8% R- 46% Obama (D) + 3.8O- 47.6% R- 47.8% Romney (R) +0.2

Article written by: Tom White

About Tom White

Tom is a US Navy Veteran, owns an Insurance Agency and is currently an IT Manager for a Virginia Distributor. He has been published in American Thinker, currently writes for the Richmond Examiner as well as Virginia Right! Blog. Tom lives in Hanover County, Va and is involved in politics at every level and is a Recovering Republican who has finally had enough of the War on Conservatives in progress with the Leadership of the GOP on a National Level.

Poll

Date

Grade

Skew